Because Hollinger, Rotoworld, Sports Guy, SI and Chad Ford haven't covered the "breakout players" for the 08-09 season enough, I offer my own take. Although mine is slightly different. This isn't so much about who is going to break out and put up a huge year, but about guys who will be vastly more important to their team's success this season. So without further ado...

Marvin Williams (Hawks) - He showed a decent amount of talent last season as a scorer. Given his size and athleticism, he ought to be a better rebounder and shot blocker, but he at least showed he can play. With the under-rated Josh Childress gone, Marv needs to step up if the Hawks want to make the playoffs for a second year in a row.

Nene (Nuggets) - With Marcus Camby gone, Kenyon Martin (he's officially lost the K-Mart moniker at this point to Kevin Martin) constantly injured and the #3 big man being Steven Hunter, Nene needs to be very very good. He's got a ton of talent. When he's been healthy and in shape, he's looked fantastic. But given the thin front line and the injury history of the front line, Nene has to stay healthy and in shape if Denver wants to even stay in playoff contention.

Amir Johnson (Pistons) - Sheed and McDyess are both 34 and Jason Maxiell is a very good player, but he's not carrying this team up front. The Pistons need Amir Johnson, who they've been developing forever, to be ready. He's a fabulous shot blocker, good rebounder and efficient (if limited) scorer. But his foul rate so far has been too high to keep him on the floor. He is an incredible talent, but if he can't cut down on the fouls without being nearly as productive, then Detroit isn't going anywhere. Plus if he isn't ready, then Sheed really can't be traded. So a lot is at stake with Johnson.

Ramon Sessions (Bucks) - He had a ridiculous end to last season, putting up 11 apg in March, including a 24 assist game. The other PG on Milwaukee is Luke Ridnour, so if the Bucks are to make the playoffs, Sessions is going to have to establish himself as at least 2/3 the player he was last March.

Devin Brown (Hornets) - New Orleans big acquisition over the summer was James Posey. They WAY overpaid for him and neglected their thin front line in order to do so. Last season (in addition to the two prior seasons), Mo Pete proved that he isn't the answer at shooting guard. With Pargo no longer around to play the "2 PG lineup", Brown has to be very good if this team is going to contend for a title. Posey is solid, but he can't really play the 2 very well, so Brown has to be able to play 25-30 minutes per game without sitting too much because of injuries or screwing up to badly. Let's just say that a lot is riding on his production.

Rashard Lewis (Magic) - Mickael Pietrus is very important to this teams' success. Last year they had a gaping hole (that's what she said) at the SG spot. This year Jameer Nelson is the only decent PG on the team. Both of those guys are intregal to Orlando's success. But Rashard Lewis' absurd contract has tied the teams hands in terms of free agency and trades, so he HAS to play well. He's known has being little more than a jumpshooter, but he played excellent perimeter and post defense in the playoffs. If can even come close to his 2008 playoffs intensity and focus, then Orlando might come withing $30 mil of his actual value. And they also would have a legit shot at making the Eastern Conference Finals.

Tim Duncan (like don't know his team) - With Manu out and Parker only able to carry so much of the load, Timmy needs to step it up. He can't have a 19 and 11 season this year if San Antonio wants to have any hope at all of winning another title. We need to see a 23-12-2.5 (blk) from Duncan if they want home court in the first round. I actually think that Ian Mahinmi will do quite well this year and help out in the front court, but it all has to start with Duncan. I know he is 32 and hasn't played more than 35 mpg in five years, but he's going to have to average 38 or 39 minutes per game this season and San An needs him to be much better than last year in those minutes. I don't think San Antonio can win another title, but if they do, it's going to be on Duncans back.

Jermaine O'Neal (Raptors) - They have a blank at SG - Anthony Parker is about to fall off a cliff - but if O'Neal can stay healthy and (like Sessions) can be even 2/3 of the player he was, then Toronto has a shot at finally moving past #4 in the East. If O'Neal can stay healthy and regain some of his production, then the Raptors fans might have a chance to witness a Toronto team that protects the paint, saves Chris Bosh from having to guard 7-foot 260 pounders and finally breaks the 50 win mark. But it all hinges on O'Neal.

So that's my first post on The Undrafted Free Agent. Check back (like voting) early and often.

Posted by mgaske on Saturday, October 25, 2008
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